It Won't Be That Bad
As someone who is involved in the WTO process and will be in the Convention Centre next week, here's my take on it.
It won't be that bad. I think the Wanchai district, outside rallies, will be very quiet. Here's why.
Logistics
1) Most cities where they hold these events are woefully underequipped to move masses of people. Hong Kong specialises in it. It has to be the easiest city in the world to get around and moves millions every day. Even for tourists, everything is in English. An extra 20,000 here and there will be a drop in the bucket. Compare to Cancun and Venice - no MTR there.
2) Hotels are not full. Wanchai hotels have lots of rooms (except the very high end, since these government people are spending taxpayer money, they are in the Penn, G. Hyatt, 4 Seasons etc). I've been calling.
3) Why arent' they full? The Americans and French, big delegations, are not staying anywhere near the convention centre. Most international news services have large, well equipped teams and facilities here. Rather than flying in thousands of journalists, most will only have to shift some staff off their regular stories to cover the WTO. And they know their way around and won't need special services. This is very different from Cancun, Seatlle, Venice, Pusan (APEC last month) and the like.
4) Many normal tourists and business people are staying away. I bet Disney and Ocean Park have the worst weeks of the year. Should be a good time for locals to go and avoid lineups.
5) Businesses in the area have been very proactive about letting people work from home or have set up other offices. A lot of them won't be around.
6) I know tons of people are taking holidays.
Politics
7) With the French obstructionists in fine form, the most radical protesters are feeling pretty smug that not much will happen here, so no need to go over the top radical.
That's my take. I think a lot of restaruanters and hoteliers are going to be very very disappointed. Barring a bomb going off or some self-immolation, it should be a fairly quiet and orderly event.
Look for more radical protests if there is news of a potential breakthrough on agriculture or the Koreans agreeing to give up rice quotas.
Also, FYI, the antis have planned protests on the 11th, 13th and 18th.
The only pro-rally will be a small affair outside the Cultural Centre in TST on the 15th at 2:30pm. It will be fun and you should come if you support free trade! Look at our website for more details on Monday. www.lionrockinstitute.org
Andrew
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